Spartans Football

Week 10 (YTD 29-27-0)

All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”

WEDNESDAY

Temple (-3’) @ Ohio.  OH has some decent stats, but has played the #119 schedule.  TU sched marginally better (#115), so see its comparative stats in a little (very little, but likely enough) better light.  Owls and Bernard Pierce (#9 tm/#11 indiv) should have ample rush O advantage; Bobcat rush D is inflated by having faced no rush O ranked better than #69 (faced 5 of bottom-26 rush O).  Both tms have extraordinary ypg edges, but Temp  has done it against better opps and has played some lights-out D (7 of 8 foes </= 14 pts).  Owl specs rank #1 in KOR, and top-15 in punts and punt ret (OH middle-of-road specs).  TU also has the TO edge (+.5/gm) so is more apt to benefit from a momentum-shifting play.  TU has advantages in RZ O, RZ D and 3rd Down D.  TEMP commits 20 ypg fewer in penalty yds.  Add that Owls have bested the tms' common opps by a healthier margin (+21 @ AKR, +45 @ BSU, +35 v. BUFF) than Bobcats, and it looks like this line is off.  TU had a clunker v. BGSU LG, but with the extra prep time should be raring to go to take a commanding lead in MAC East.  OH has dominated the 4-gm series, but the D and rush edges should be enough for Cosby’s kids to get it done.  TU 7-3 L10 as rd fave and 5-2 L7 off s-u L.  Owls should be able to control the clock and make fewer mistakes; add the field pos. edge that should be gained by specs, and this would appear to be a DD-win scenario.   

FRIDAY

Kent (-1) v. Central Michigan.  Kent much better in all defensive respects and should be able to defend its hm turf.  CMU -1 TO/gm and is 0-6 rd TY. 3rd straight rd gm too much for Chips who got a rare rd s-u W LW against a far inferior AKR by measly 1 pt.

SATURDAY

Georgia (-32) v. New Mexico State.  Yes, Dawgs have main RBs suspended.  Yes, Dawgs coming off huge W v. FL and are in a FL/AUB sandwich.  Yes, Aggies much improved compared w/ recent vintages and upset Minny on rd back in Sept.  But, no, Aggies will have no chance of hanging w/ UGA in this one.  It’s simply too much to ask a Pacific Time tm to travel all the way East for a 12:30 p.m. start.  Add that NMS has yet to face any ttl or score D near as stout as GA, and you get equation for a blowout even with zero focus by Dawgs.  Aggies #98 score D will permit plenty o’ points.  GA won’t win by 60, but it’ll have no trouble winning by about 35.  Gaming gods likely to get NMS back to reality after a 5-0 run.

Boise State (-42) @ UNLV.  Probably too many pts, but it’s the biggest stat mismatch of the wk.  #5 pass O v. #117 pass D should do exactly what HOU did to Rice LW.  BSU had an extra prep wk so should be fully rested and injury-free, too.  BSU +366 ttl ypg differential compared w/ UNLV & carries a +1.29 TO margin into tilt.  BSU +57 and +47 v, two common foes.  UNLV 1-5 L6Y as 4-TD+ dog and can’t do anything right, incl. lousy FG kicking, so it might not score at all (BSU held 3 of L4 foes to </= 13).  BSU 15-5 L4Y rd fave, 11-5 L6Y as 30+ fave, 2-0 L2 as 40+ fave. 

Mississippi @ Kentucky (over 44’).  These two D are so bad, the opposing O, as anemic as they are, will have no choice but to score at will.  Rebels L4G all 51+ and Wildcats 4 of L5 44+.  12-straight KY SEC hm gms 44+ w/ just one < 48 ttl.  Tms tallied 77 ttl in LY mtg. 

Alabama (-4) v. LSU.  Don’t believe the hype; AL has so many distinct edges this gm should turn out exactly like OK v. KSU “clash of titans” LW.  LSU allows 27% more RZ scoring, commits 24 more penalty yds/gm and has 156 ypg worse ttl yd edge than AL.  Tide 25-1 s-u in Tuscaloosa L 26 and don’t foresee a slip here.  ‘Bama in a cakewalk.

Idaho (+8’) @ San Jose State.  Vandals have better D by far and should find enough in the pass gm to exploit SJS and maybe even sneak away with a rd W.  It’s another in the line of plays that holds a tm that gets outgained by 66 ypg and has a negative TO ratio, shouldn’t be laying > 7 . . . to anyone.  L4 mtgs dec’d by 22 ttl pts.  Tms plyed comparable gms v. L2 common opps.

Michigan State v. Minnesota (over 47).  MSU will score > 47 on its own.  Minny has allowed 52 ppg in conf rd gms TY and stands no chance v. an angry O looking to atone for the awful showing at NEB LW.  5 of L6 mtgs ttl 49+ w/ avg 67 ppg.

UL-Monroe (+5) @ UL-Lafayette.  War Hawks are better in almost every D category (incl. ttl D, rush D and RZ D) and have a better overall ypg mark.  ULM played better v. WKU and Troy than did ULAF.  ULM also hung tight w/ cond front-runner ASU.  ULM L L2 mtgs s-u by 5 ttl pts and holds a 10-6 s-u edge L16 mtgs and 6 of 8 all-time s-u Ls in series by </= 5.  War Hawks would appear to have better tm and have excellent chance at upset.  FG kicking makes me nervous, but hopefully not enough of a problem to lose.  

Better than the Duke football team

Week 7 (YTD 18-18-0)

All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”

Friday, October 14, 2011

Hawaii (-6’) @ San Jose State.  HI has 170 ttl ypg edge and almost a full TO/gm edge.  Moniz and his minions (#8 pass/#25 score) will get plenty vs. a SJS D that ranks #92 or worse in all major categories and is next-to-last in sacks and TFLs.  Give Moniz time and he’ll find a way to pick apart the SJS secondary a la STAN’s Luck in week 1.  SJS giving up pts in bunches & have allowed four foes season-high ttl or within one score of season-high ttl.  Warriors D much, much better than SJS.  Can sort of explain the UNLV stinkfest based on B2B rd gms.  HI has had an extra prep wk for this gm and should be loaded for Spartan.  HI 5-2 L7 as rd fave & 9-1 L10 v. conf; SJS 4-6 L10 hm dog & 5-12-1 L18 v. conf.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Northwestern (+6’) @ Iowa.  Colter and Persa are running a fluid tandem of rush and pass, expect NU to tally enough to win this outright.  NU has a huge TO edge, and a tm (Hawkeyes) that can’t outgain its foes shouldn’t be laying 6’ pts, especially when it has a history of losing H2H to its scheduled foe (NU 5-1 s-u L6 mtgs all as dog; 2-5 s-u L7 at Kinnick Stadium).  NU 9-2 L4Y as rd dog; IA 6-8 L5Y as conf hm fave.

Texas Tech (-3) v. Kansas State.  TT is excellent at home (31-20 L11Y; 53-12 s-u), and the gilding will wear off KSU’s 4-0 ATS lily at some point.  Griffin (#5 ttl O) was 23/31 for 346 yds and 5 TDs v. KSU pass D.  Doege (#6 ttl O; 71% & 17:1 ratio) should be able to do the same.  TT has the vastly better TO margin and ttl ypg edge.  Red Raiders 4-1-1 L4Y as SD fave.

Eastern Michigan (+14) @ Central Michigan.  EMU has a nearly identical ttl ypg mark and a much better TO margin (CMU -1.17/gm).  EMU has #25 rush O vs. CMU #94 rush O, so expect Eagles to be able to control the clock and manage the score.  EMU also better rush D than Chips.  Eagles also better at converting 3^rd D and stopping opponents from TDs in RZ.  Yes, CMU crushed EMU l2 mtgs, but EMU has a better squad TY and has all of the stat advantages to believe it will keep this close throughout and have a decent chance of the upset.       

Alabama (-25’) @ Mississippi.  AL +244 ttl ypg; MS -134 ttl ypg.  AL converts 49% 3^rd D; Ole Miss converts 34%.  AL allows just 28% 3^rd D; Ole Miss allows 44%.  Tide gains 5.6 ypc rush; Rebs gain just 3.4 ypc.  MS allows 4.6 ypc; AL #1 allowing mere 1.6 ypc.  AL #2 in having just 27 penalty ypg; MS has whopping 70 penalty ypg.  MS lost to Vandy 30-7; AL beat Vandy 34-0.  Don’t like the recent history v. Ole Miss, but it’s one of the worst stat mismatches of the week.

Florida State (-12’) @ Duke.  FSU desperate for a W and gets a gimme for the first time in a month after a gantlet of OK, CLEM and WF (combined 15-1 s-u).  ‘Noles are 16-0 s-u all-time v. Devils including 5-0 in Durham by avg score 52-15.  No gm closer than 19 pts.  TOs only thing that could keep it close (FSU -1.4/gm), but DU also negative ratio, so hope not to be issue.  FSU +127 ttl ypg while DU barely breaking even.  FSU outstanding rush D (<3 ypc) will bedevil Duke and make this one a mockery.

Nevada (-29’) v. New Mexico.  Words can’t describe how bad Lobos are playing . . . but I’ll try.  NM lost s-u at hm to DI-AA Sam Houston, lost at hm to wretched NM St and lost by 45+ to two tms with solid O.  NV lost at TT by 1 pt, whereas NM lost at hm to TT by 46 (in a gm that could have been worse if not for multiple lengthy lightning delays).  Lobos dead last allowing 56% 3^rd D convert and next-to-last in score D, total D and pass eff D.  NM 2-9 L11 v. non-conf and 4-8 L12 as 20+ dog.  NV had a brutal start with 4-straight rd gms incl. OR, Boise and TT.  They showed what they can do v. weaker foes LW in beating rival UNLV by 37 and should do more of the same TW.  It’ll be closer to the line that we might like, but can’t fear the number when we have the +100/-100 ttl ypg edge.