Spartans Football
Week 10 (YTD 29-27-0)
All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
WEDNESDAY
Temple (-3’) @ Ohio. OH has some decent stats, but has played the #119 schedule. TU sched marginally better (#115), so see its comparative stats in a little (very little, but likely enough) better light. Owls and Bernard Pierce (#9 tm/#11 indiv) should have ample rush O advantage; Bobcat rush D is inflated by having faced no rush O ranked better than #69 (faced 5 of bottom-26 rush O). Both tms have extraordinary ypg edges, but Temp has done it against better opps and has played some lights-out D (7 of 8 foes </= 14 pts). Owl specs rank #1 in KOR, and top-15 in punts and punt ret (OH middle-of-road specs). TU also has the TO edge (+.5/gm) so is more apt to benefit from a momentum-shifting play. TU has advantages in RZ O, RZ D and 3rd Down D. TEMP commits 20 ypg fewer in penalty yds. Add that Owls have bested the tms' common opps by a healthier margin (+21 @ AKR, +45 @ BSU, +35 v. BUFF) than Bobcats, and it looks like this line is off. TU had a clunker v. BGSU LG, but with the extra prep time should be raring to go to take a commanding lead in MAC East. OH has dominated the 4-gm series, but the D and rush edges should be enough for Cosby’s kids to get it done. TU 7-3 L10 as rd fave and 5-2 L7 off s-u L. Owls should be able to control the clock and make fewer mistakes; add the field pos. edge that should be gained by specs, and this would appear to be a DD-win scenario.
FRIDAY
Kent (-1) v. Central Michigan. Kent much better in all defensive respects and should be able to defend its hm turf. CMU -1 TO/gm and is 0-6 rd TY. 3rd straight rd gm too much for Chips who got a rare rd s-u W LW against a far inferior AKR by measly 1 pt.
SATURDAY
Georgia (-32) v. New Mexico State. Yes, Dawgs have main RBs suspended. Yes, Dawgs coming off huge W v. FL and are in a FL/AUB sandwich. Yes, Aggies much improved compared w/ recent vintages and upset Minny on rd back in Sept. But, no, Aggies will have no chance of hanging w/ UGA in this one. It’s simply too much to ask a Pacific Time tm to travel all the way East for a 12:30 p.m. start. Add that NMS has yet to face any ttl or score D near as stout as GA, and you get equation for a blowout even with zero focus by Dawgs. Aggies #98 score D will permit plenty o’ points. GA won’t win by 60, but it’ll have no trouble winning by about 35. Gaming gods likely to get NMS back to reality after a 5-0 run.
Boise State (-42) @ UNLV. Probably too many pts, but it’s the biggest stat mismatch of the wk. #5 pass O v. #117 pass D should do exactly what HOU did to Rice LW. BSU had an extra prep wk so should be fully rested and injury-free, too. BSU +366 ttl ypg differential compared w/ UNLV & carries a +1.29 TO margin into tilt. BSU +57 and +47 v, two common foes. UNLV 1-5 L6Y as 4-TD+ dog and can’t do anything right, incl. lousy FG kicking, so it might not score at all (BSU held 3 of L4 foes to </= 13). BSU 15-5 L4Y rd fave, 11-5 L6Y as 30+ fave, 2-0 L2 as 40+ fave.
Mississippi @ Kentucky (over 44’). These two D are so bad, the opposing O, as anemic as they are, will have no choice but to score at will. Rebels L4G all 51+ and Wildcats 4 of L5 44+. 12-straight KY SEC hm gms 44+ w/ just one < 48 ttl. Tms tallied 77 ttl in LY mtg.
Alabama (-4) v. LSU. Don’t believe the hype; AL has so many distinct edges this gm should turn out exactly like OK v. KSU “clash of titans” LW. LSU allows 27% more RZ scoring, commits 24 more penalty yds/gm and has 156 ypg worse ttl yd edge than AL. Tide 25-1 s-u in Tuscaloosa L 26 and don’t foresee a slip here. ‘Bama in a cakewalk.
Idaho (+8’) @ San Jose State. Vandals have better D by far and should find enough in the pass gm to exploit SJS and maybe even sneak away with a rd W. It’s another in the line of plays that holds a tm that gets outgained by 66 ypg and has a negative TO ratio, shouldn’t be laying > 7 . . . to anyone. L4 mtgs dec’d by 22 ttl pts. Tms plyed comparable gms v. L2 common opps.
Michigan State v. Minnesota (over 47). MSU will score > 47 on its own. Minny has allowed 52 ppg in conf rd gms TY and stands no chance v. an angry O looking to atone for the awful showing at NEB LW. 5 of L6 mtgs ttl 49+ w/ avg 67 ppg.
UL-Monroe (+5) @ UL-Lafayette. War Hawks are better in almost every D category (incl. ttl D, rush D and RZ D) and have a better overall ypg mark. ULM played better v. WKU and Troy than did ULAF. ULM also hung tight w/ cond front-runner ASU. ULM L L2 mtgs s-u by 5 ttl pts and holds a 10-6 s-u edge L16 mtgs and 6 of 8 all-time s-u Ls in series by </= 5. War Hawks would appear to have better tm and have excellent chance at upset. FG kicking makes me nervous, but hopefully not enough of a problem to lose.
