Bowls (YTD 47-42-1)

All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”

As in years past, I’ll be releasing all of the bowl picks through the BCS Championship game.  I have already determined the totals for all 35 gms, but I will lock each gm in when I determine the best value exists.  Let’s hope TY goes as well as the past several . . . would make for a nice finish.  Here are the preliminary locked-in gms.

December 22, 2011

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas)

Arizona State v. Boise State (under 67).

December 28, 2011

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl (San Diego)

Texas v. California (over 47’)

Military Bowl Presented By Northrop Grumman (Washington, D.C.)

Toledo v. Air Force (under 71).

December 29, 2011

Valero Alamo Bowl (San Antonio)

Baylor v. Washington (under 78’)

December 30, 2011

New Era Pinstripe Bowl (New York)

Rutgers v. Iowa State (over 44’).

December 31, 2011

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (San Francisco)

Illinois v. UCLA (over 46’)

January 2, 2012

TicketCity  Bowl (Houston)

Houston v. Penn State (under 57’).

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)

Oklahoma State v. Stanford (under 75’).

Capital One Bowl (Orlando, FL)

South Carolina v. Nebraska (over 47’).

Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio (Pasadena, CA)

Wisconsin v. Oregon (under 72).

January 3, 2012

Allstate Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)

Michigan v. Virginia Tech (under 51’).

January 6, 2012

AT&T Cotton Bowl (Arlington, TX)

Kansas State v. Arkansas (under 64).

January 9, 2012

Allstate BCS National Championship Game (New Orleans)

LSU v. Alabama (over 39).

UH Quarterback Case Keenum

Week 14 (YTD 43-37-1)

All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”

THURSDAY

West Virginia @ South Florida (under 55).  Simply too many pts for what should be a defensive tussle and a gm that sees USF having to go w/o dual-threat QB Daniels.  Back-up QB has been terrible and is completely immobile, so the Bulls O playbook shrinks considerably and should lead to more true rushing plays to grind the clock.  #34 and #25 ttl D, respectively, so should expect some stinginess.  Both Ks are sub-par (USF just 17/24 FGs; WV missed 4 of L5 att), so pts should be left on the field.  USF has a disruptive D (#2 sks and TFLs) and allows just 44% RZ TDs.   3 of L4 USF ttls un 55.  Six series mtgs ttl 26, 49, 20, 34, 43 and 41, respectively.  USF scored </= 24 in 5 of L7 gm and held foes to </= 24 in 8 of 11G TY.  WV L2G ttl 45 and 41, respectively, and would look for something in that range again.  WV must win to stay in Big East title hunt, and I believe that will lead them to play tight.  USF has nothing to lose and everything to gain by winning and becoming bowl-eligible.  Given the Bulls losses on O, look for them to pin their dire hopes on a D onslaught that will hold Mountaineers in relative check.  Close game w/ both tms under 25.

FRIDAY

Oregon (-31’) v. UCLA.  Playing the trends that UCLA is 3-13 L16 as rd dog and Ducks are 25-11-2 L38 as hm fave.  Bruins already have conceded defeat by petitioning NCAA for bowl bid when they end up 6-7 and are playing with fired lame duck coach Neuheisel at controls . . . that doesn’t portend a solid effort, esp. with what should be a deep early deficit.  OR won at Autzen 60-13 LY and would expect about the same tonight.

SATURDAY

Virginia Tech (-7) v. Clemson (at Charlotte).  VT has too much D edge to blow this one and will dominate as it has in 3 of L4 ACC title tilts.  CLEM D allowed 36 ppg L6G while VT D allowed 15 ppg over same stretch.

Boise State (-48’) v. New Mexico.  Honestly, nothing about this gm should keep BSU from amassing 70 pts.  There are 120 tms in DI-A, and NM ranks as follows:

 NM also has scored just 4 ppg in 2H v, DI-A foes TY (SHO for 2H 6x), so back door not a threat.

TCU v. UNLV (over 57).  TCU should be good for 49+ on its own v. porous Reb D (#106 ttl D & #117 score D).  TCU will run all over UNLV w/ #20 rush O facing #100 rush D. 

Southern Mississippi @ Houston (over 72).  Two potent O tee it up and score at will . . .

Southern Missisissippi (+14) @ Houston.   . . . resulting in a gm that is won on the final poss.

Michigan State (+9’) v. Wisconsin (@ Indianapolis).  Better D should keep this one close.  I have stated all ssn that MSU is the cream of the Big 10 crop and it gets to prove it tomorrow.

Florida Atlantic (+7’) v. UL-Monroe.  ULM not good enough to lay 7+ to anyone on rd.  Owls send Schnellenberger into blissful retirement w/ a sweet parting victory.