Better than the Duke football team
Week 7 (YTD 18-18-0)
All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
Friday, October 14, 2011
Hawaii (-6’) @ San Jose State. HI has 170 ttl ypg edge and almost a full TO/gm edge. Moniz and his minions (#8 pass/#25 score) will get plenty vs. a SJS D that ranks #92 or worse in all major categories and is next-to-last in sacks and TFLs. Give Moniz time and he’ll find a way to pick apart the SJS secondary a la STAN’s Luck in week 1. SJS giving up pts in bunches & have allowed four foes season-high ttl or within one score of season-high ttl. Warriors D much, much better than SJS. Can sort of explain the UNLV stinkfest based on B2B rd gms. HI has had an extra prep wk for this gm and should be loaded for Spartan. HI 5-2 L7 as rd fave & 9-1 L10 v. conf; SJS 4-6 L10 hm dog & 5-12-1 L18 v. conf.
Northwestern (+6’) @ Iowa. Colter and Persa are running a fluid tandem of rush and pass, expect NU to tally enough to win this outright. NU has a huge TO edge, and a tm (Hawkeyes) that can’t outgain its foes shouldn’t be laying 6’ pts, especially when it has a history of losing H2H to its scheduled foe (NU 5-1 s-u L6 mtgs all as dog; 2-5 s-u L7 at Kinnick Stadium). NU 9-2 L4Y as rd dog; IA 6-8 L5Y as conf hm fave.
Texas Tech (-3) v. Kansas State. TT is excellent at home (31-20 L11Y; 53-12 s-u), and the gilding will wear off KSU’s 4-0 ATS lily at some point. Griffin (#5 ttl O) was 23/31 for 346 yds and 5 TDs v. KSU pass D. Doege (#6 ttl O; 71% & 17:1 ratio) should be able to do the same. TT has the vastly better TO margin and ttl ypg edge. Red Raiders 4-1-1 L4Y as SD fave.
Eastern Michigan (+14) @ Central Michigan. EMU has a nearly identical ttl ypg mark and a much better TO margin (CMU -1.17/gm). EMU has #25 rush O vs. CMU #94 rush O, so expect Eagles to be able to control the clock and manage the score. EMU also better rush D than Chips. Eagles also better at converting 3rd D and stopping opponents from TDs in RZ. Yes, CMU crushed EMU l2 mtgs, but EMU has a better squad TY and has all of the stat advantages to believe it will keep this close throughout and have a decent chance of the upset.
Alabama (-25’) @ Mississippi. AL +244 ttl ypg; MS -134 ttl ypg. AL converts 49% 3rd D; Ole Miss converts 34%. AL allows just 28% 3rd D; Ole Miss allows 44%. Tide gains 5.6 ypc rush; Rebs gain just 3.4 ypc. MS allows 4.6 ypc; AL #1 allowing mere 1.6 ypc. AL #2 in having just 27 penalty ypg; MS has whopping 70 penalty ypg. MS lost to Vandy 30-7; AL beat Vandy 34-0. Don’t like the recent history v. Ole Miss, but it’s one of the worst stat mismatches of the week.
Florida State (-12’) @ Duke. FSU desperate for a W and gets a gimme for the first time in a month after a gantlet of OK, CLEM and WF (combined 15-1 s-u). ‘Noles are 16-0 s-u all-time v. Devils including 5-0 in Durham by avg score 52-15. No gm closer than 19 pts. TOs only thing that could keep it close (FSU -1.4/gm), but DU also negative ratio, so hope not to be issue. FSU +127 ttl ypg while DU barely breaking even. FSU outstanding rush D (<3 ypc) will bedevil Duke and make this one a mockery.
Nevada (-29’) v. New Mexico. Words can’t describe how bad Lobos are playing . . . but I’ll try. NM lost s-u at hm to DI-AA Sam Houston, lost at hm to wretched NM St and lost by 45+ to two tms with solid O. NV lost at TT by 1 pt, whereas NM lost at hm to TT by 46 (in a gm that could have been worse if not for multiple lengthy lightning delays). Lobos dead last allowing 56% 3rd D convert and next-to-last in score D, total D and pass eff D. NM 2-9 L11 v. non-conf and 4-8 L12 as 20+ dog. NV had a brutal start with 4-straight rd gms incl. OR, Boise and TT. They showed what they can do v. weaker foes LW in beating rival UNLV by 37 and should do more of the same TW. It’ll be closer to the line that we might like, but can’t fear the number when we have the +100/-100 ttl ypg edge.
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