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All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Penn State (-4) v. Iowa. Will Joe Pa be on the sidelines? Depends. (Get it?) PSU will not open 0-5. IA has been mediocre in losing to ISU and struggling to squeak out a lucky W v. Pitt and should struggle v. PSU D (#5) in Happy Valley. PSU squandered many, many opportunities to cover LW (INT at 1, stalled at 5, missed FG, settled for FG after INT at IU 13, FUM at 2, allowed only TD late 4Q after 4th-and-5 conversion) in throttling IU (464-256 ttl yds and +15:00 TOP) and should be giving way more than this paltry sum. Nittanies 7-2 L9 as < TD fave.
Virginia Tech (-7’) v. Miami-FL. Huge bounceback for VT TW who should handle MIA moribund O. ‘Canes one of just 14 tms to allow > 5 ypc rush, so VT should be able to exploit that weakness to hold the ball and control gm. Hokies 5-0 L5 mtgs; MIA 17-32 L6Y v. ACC.
Boston College (+20’) @ Clemson. All-world RB Montel Harris missed BC’s 1st 3 TY and it showed in beatings by NU, UCF and DU. He returned briefly v. UMass and fully LW, amassing 100+ yds in a close call v. WF. CLEM fat and happy after its 4-0 (5-0 s-u) start and likely a little too complacent TW as it faces a tm that has been improving but still stands at 0-4 (1-4 s-u). CLEM wins, but it’ll be closer than most would expect. Eagles 15-6 as rd dog L21 tries, while CLEM 5-7 L5Y as DD ACC fave (2-5 L7 as DD hm ACC fave).
Rutgers (+7) v. Pittsburgh. RUT has better ttl ypg, much better TO margin (+2.75) and has won three of last five mtgs s-u. Pitt struggled v. ME, IA and ND and hasn’t shown any signs of life aside from the anomalous Thurs. night USF gm.
Mississippi State (-19) @ UAB. UAB is #119 in ttl ypg and must play w/ back-up QB. MSU has to be looking for a whipping boy after four consecutive stinkers. If Relf ever is to live up to his potential it will be this gm wherein UAB ranks last in sacks and #108 or worse in rush D, pass D, ttl D, score D and pass eff D. Bulldogs yield TDs on just 50% RZ poss., while Blazers allow 71% TD. UAB also has managed just 27% TD scores in RZ, so shouldn’t expect it to rally for back-door TDs.
Texas Tech (+9’) v. Texas A&M. A&M has a vaunted rush attack that should find its way against Red Raider rush D. But TT also has a decent rush attack to complement the gunslinger pass O. TT always tough in Lubbock (only 11 s-u L in L 11Y and 7-3 during that stretch as a hm dog) and should do plenty to keep this one tight. I’ll go with the #3 TO margin (+2) vs. #112 (-1.25) and expect a big momentum shift to go Red Raiders’ way. TT also sports nation’s best RZ TD% and should be able to ring the bell v. A&M score D that already has allowed 30+ to L2 foes.
Wake Forest v. Florida State (over 51’). Both tms should pass with abandon (#14 and #17, respectively) and extend the game. Deacons’ LOW ttl TY has been 46, and tms have combined for 53+ 5x TY. L10 mtgs avg 49 ppg (5 ttls 55+). Both tms convert over 46% 3rd D and score TDs over 50% in RZ. Both K combined for 16/17 on FGs, so shouldn’t leave pts on field.
Air Force (+14) @ Notre Dame. AF better rush O (6.9 ypc!!) and is +109 ttl ypg (ND just +127; not enough diff to be laying > 2 TD). AF scores TD in RZ 71%, while Irish just 53%. ND has almost twice as many TOs as Flyboys. ND 13-26-2 L8Y hm fave (3-10-1 L5Y as DD hm fave). AF 6-5 s-u L6Y non-conf rd gms w/ no s-u L by > 11 and avg s-u L by just 5 pts).
Ohio (-8’) @ Buffalo. Bulls have lost s-u to Ball St and have dropped 3 of 4 DI-A gms by 14+. OH has much better ttl D (#14 v. #75) and rush D (#30 v. #88). Bobcats +160 ttl ypg v. BUF -52. OH #2 in takeaways so should make some big plays. OH leads 3rd D conv O (48% to 34%) and 3rd D conv D (33% to 42%). 5-2 s-u rec L7 mtgs (avg W margin 21 ppg). Bobcats 6-3 L4Y rd fave while BUF 1-5 L3Y as hm dog and 3-14 L3Y off s-u L. All signs point to a rout.
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