Flirckr image courtesy allaboutuni2307
Week 5 (YTD 11-9-0)
All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Northwestern (+8) @ Illinois. Persa back at the helm (#1 nationally LY 73.5% comp & 15:4), so O should get much needed spark and find its up-tempo rhythm. HC Fitzgerald has been quoted as saying, “after what they did to us in Wrigley Field last season, I don’t need to do a lot of motivating this week.” This doesn’t always work, but Mack Brown and Paul Johnson said similar things prior to their respective squads playing atonement gms two wks ago – both worked out swimmingly (49-20 & 66-24, respectively). DE DiNardo back, so the rush D woes that plagued ‘Cats v. Army should be cured. ‘Cats had 2 wks to prepare, while IL have been in B2B dogfights. NU is 6-2 s-u L8 mtgs and 8-2 L10 as rd dogs. NU wins outright.
Toledo (+8) @ Temple. TOL has gone on the rd and given absolute fits to OSU and SYR and also avoided getting embarrassed by Boise @ hm. Temple has been a nice story w/ near upset of PSU and clubbing of MD, but it is a one-dimensional tm (186 rush plays v. 76 pass plays) that will be severely challenged by a Rocket rush D that allows < 4 ypc (TU 0-1 s-u v. only tm that allowed < 4 ypc). TOL squad has had brutal non-conf sched and now can set its sights on running the MAC table with its conf-best 18 returning starters. TEMP 3-0 TY and methinks bettors are overvaluing the hot streak. TOL wins outright.
Texas (-9’) @ Iowa State. Horns have a vastly superior RZ D and are > 2 TO/gm better than ISU. Huge ttl yd edge for TX, too. ISU looking good to linesmakers at 2-0 (3-0 s-u), but Cyclones due to run out of air sooner rather than later. Horns are on a tour of redemption efforts from LY derailment, and this is the next stop. LY ISU beat TX for first time in history, but series has seen TX cruise to DD W’s in 6 of 8 mtgs.
Alabama @ Florida (under 45’). In a match-up of top-5 D, one can expect pts to be at a premium. This is a must-win gm that typically breeds conservatism and a battle for field position. TY we have seen two gms featuring D that allow < 14 ppg, producing 38- and 24-pt totals, respectively. Four of L5 reg ssn mtgs </= 41.
Virginia Tech (-6’) v. Clemson. Hokies dash the Tigers’ dreams in a surprisingly easy W. The #4 ttl D will dominate CLEM as it has L5 mtgs (5-0 s-u by 23+ ppg). A ton of artificial line value here with each tm’s respective ATS start (0-3 v. 3-0). VT 9-3 L12 as < TD fave. Apropos of nothing, perhaps, but LT Clem started 4-0 s-u went to GT and L 13-3.
Penn State (-16) @ Indiana. PSU will not open 0-4. IU has been dreadful in losing to Ball St., VA and NTX, as well as in escaping DI-AA SC St. PSU has #8 ttl D and should pitch a SHO in this one. PSU 14-0 s-u v. IU all-time w/ 4 of L7 by 17+.
Virginia (-16) v. Idaho. VA #28 ttl D v. ID #104 ttl D. ID has to make the crazy trip to East Coast. ID 10-26 L6Y off s-u L. Vandals 0-8 s-u L6Y @ BCS foes (all L’s by 17+ w/ avg margin 34 ppg). We have > 200 ypg edge in this one, and that typically bodes well for a 4-TD blowout. Also believe VA would be bigger fave if it did not sit at 0-3 TY.
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