The best looking site in Atlanta
Week 9 (YTD 25-26-0)
All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
Michigan State (+4) @ Nebraska. Get it before it drops to 3. MSU vastly superior on D, ranking in top-8 in virtually every category. Sparty also has the TO edge and is beginning to show its conf dominance that had me pick them in Aug. to win it all TY. Sure to be a hostile environment and sure to be a comedown from B2B huge Ws v. archrival MI and unbeaten WI. Still the better D and the tm w/ fewer TOs will prevail and don’t see NEB with much shot at winning. NEB -29 at WI, while MSU +6 v. WI; NEB +7 v. OSU (in a gm that OSU really let slip away), while MSU +3 @ OSU. Huskers 10-18 hm fave L5Y (0-3 TY).
Houston (-27) v. Rice. Get it before it gets to 28. Cougars’ porous D always makes me nervous, but I just don’t see how Rice can slow down Keenum. One of only two +100/-100 gm on the card, so I have to play it. The quick turnaround for RICE will make it tough to be prepared to face the #1 pass O in DI-A when it sports the #99 pass D. Owls L by 25 avg to TX, BAY and SoMiss. Rice 2-10 L4Y as DD rd dog and 0-2 TY as 20+ dog. HOU 5-0 L4Y as 20+ fave. Owls L at Marsh by 4, while HOU just dismantled Herd by 35. Hm tm dominates the series w/ HOU prevailing 73-14 L hm mtg. TOs could be diff, but HOU ranks #7 at +1.3/gm, while RIC is #91. Cougars have 20% edge on convert 3rd D, so should easily win TOP. HOU also has better rush O & D, so all signs point to an epic rout.
Georgia Tech (+4’) v. Clemson. GT has better ttl ypg edge and a better score D. Looks like a good matchup for GT #5 rush O (5.9 ypc) v. CLEM #76 rush D (4.6 ypc). CLEM living off TOs, but GT has a pos. margin. Jackets 4-1 s-u L5 mtgs and have played much better D v. two common foes, holding NC and MD to combined 44 pts (CLEM allowed 83 combined). If you believe in gaming gods balancing a ledger as the ssn goes on, CLEM is 7-0 TY, while Tech is 0-3-2 L5G.
Central Florida (-28’) v. Memphis. UCF embarrassed on the four-day rd turnaround LW at UAB but still has too many undeniable edges v. woeful MEM tm that reared up and bit TUL on rd LW. Tigers aren’t likely to change their losing stripes in B2B gms esp. with O’Leary riding the whip on a tm that flat quit LW. Knights convert 12% better on 3rd D and hold opps to 17% fewer converts. Knights have #48 rush O (4.3 ypc), while MEM is #116 and gains just 2.6 ypc. UCF was 21 pts better v. common opp SMU. UCF 9-4 L13 hm fave; MEM 7-11 L18 rd dog and 15-31-1 L11Y off s-u W. With MEM touting #118 ttl D and pass D, as well as #106 score D, and UCF w/ #4 ttl D, #7 pass D, #12 score and rush D, this will be over early.
Northwestern (-9) @ Indiana. IU lost to Ball State and North Texas. IU is awful at stopping the run (#118/5+ ypc). NU actually outgained PSU and IA the past two weeks and held massive edges TOP, FD, 3rd D % and committed far fewer penalties. A couple of huge TOs really cost the ‘Cats and turned Ws into Ls. Cats are angry and looking for a whipping boy TW . . . enter the Hoosiers. The ‘Cats finally get a tm with a wretched O and worse D. Hide the family because there will be some raping and pillaging Saturday in Bloomington.
