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All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
Saturday, September 3, 2011
South Florida (+11) @ Notre Dame. Irish 12-25-2 L8Y hm fave and 2-9-1 L5Y DD hm fave. Could be a bit of a look-ahead here as rival MI on tap. ND scored just 26 ppg LY and eclipsed 30 just twice, so don’t expect a deluge of tallies. USF poised for a run in Big East and should improve dramatically in Holtz’s 2nd yr . Bulls 8-3 L4Y rd dog (incl. 4 straight s-u Ws) and 8-2 L5Y as > 7-pt dog. Dynamic QB Daniels should test ND D and keep this one a nail-biter to final minutes. Given dad’s ND legacy and that USF has three patsies lined up, expect a focused effort by Holtz the Jr. and his charges in this one.
Texas (-24) v. Rice. A return to normalcy in Austin can be expected TY, and there’s no better way to start than eviscerating the Owls. TX has boiled Rice for four decades including s-u Ws by 45, 44, 42 in 3 of L4 mtgs. Unlike LY, ‘Horns have QB, RB and PK returning and should have an easier time denting the scoreboard. Mack Brown needs a statement gm that his squad is back to form, and this will be it. TX dominant in hm openers L5Y w/ 4 s-u Ws by 27+ (avg 39 ppg).
Oregon v. LSU (at Arlington, TX) Under 54’. LSU down to 3rd-string QB and will be w/o top-2 rushers from LY and #1 WR from LY. Add fact that Tigers breaking in a new PK, and pts should be at a premium, particularly on a neutral field in a make-or-break opener in which few chances should be taken (though there’s always the wacky Miles factor). LSU D allowed just 17 ppg L2Y. Ttls for LSU when v. top-10 foe L5Y avg 47 ppg (w/ 12 of 15 </= 55). OR D has improved each of L3Y under HC Kelly, so expect it to step up in much the way it did v. AUB in LY BCS champ gm. OR 6-4-1 </= 55 ttl L5Y v. top-10 opp.
Middle Tennessee State (+17’) @ Purdue. Not sure who will play QB for PUR, but I know it won’t be either of its top-2 helmsmen. That, combined w/ losing top-3 RB and 3 of top-4 WR from LY should make scoring pts a tough task. No doubt PUR will be solid on D, but laying 17+ is not gd spot when they might not score > 20. Boliers are 2-7 L2Y hm fave and 1-4 L5Y as >14-pt fave. MTSU has L only 1 of L5 rd openers by > 14.
Oklahoma State (-38) v. Louisiana-Lafayette. Pokes 14-7-1 L4Y hm fave and perfect 5-0 L5 lined hm openers. OSU also excellent when laying the big chalk (6-1 L5Y as >23-pt fave). Beat ULL LY in Lafayette by 26 and, while Cowboys did allow an unseemly four TDs, ULL was at hm and playing under different schemes than TY. ULL brutal on rd L5Y v. power conf (losing by 40+ to A&M, LSU, TN, NEB and GA) and 1-4 L5Y in rd openers. New HC comes up from D-II, and new HC playing 1st rd gm usu have a rough go.
Houston (-2’) v. UCLA. Keenum back under C and Beall still rumbling for big yds at RB will have Cougars lighting up the scoreboard with alacrity TY. HOU 7-4 L3Y hm fave and 26-5 s-u at hm L5Y, w/ only 1 W by < 5 pts. UCLA 4-11 rd dog L3Y and terrible 4-16 s-u L20 rd dog (no s-u L by < 3 and just 1 by < 7).
New Mexico (+6) v. Colorado State. Unsure why CSU is a fave in a rivalry that has seen the hm tm win s-u L4Y and has NM s-u winner 3 of L4 mtgs in Albuquerque. Plus, Rams just 1-10 L8Y as rd fave and have lost 11-straight gms away from Ft. Collins s-u. Lobos have way more experience and some quality transfers and should be much-improved.
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