Flickr image courtesy calamity jane
(LW 10-5, a huge improvement over the previous week; YTD 40-32-1)
All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
xx
Texas (+5) v. Oklahoma State. If not now, when? Horns 12-0 s-u L12 mtgs and just can’t see them losing four straight hm gms s-u. TOs could be the undoing again, but I’ll go with better 3rd Down D, better score D, better total D, better rush D.
Troy (-8’) v. FIU. Troy 6-0 s-u all-time v. FIU and has managed to lose by the hook L3Y. This year’s squad has enough statistical edges and urgency to win the remaining games for the league crown to prevail handily. FIU 1-6 L3Y btwn 7- and 17-pt dog.
Oklahoma (-14’) v. Texas Tech. OK much better defensively and needs a breakout game to erase the debacle that was the A&M gm LW. Hm crowd, better focus and better ball control result in a lopsided W. Sooners 18 pts better v. TX, 66 pts better v. ISU, 30 pts better v. CO and 4 pts better v. A&M.
Eastern Michigan (+19) @ Western Michigan. WMU too many flaws to be laying this many to anyone . . . even a tm as fundamentally flawed as EMU.
Memphis (+17) @ Marshall. Any tm that gets outgained by 85 ypg, allows 46% 3rd down conversions, 31 ppg on almost 400 ypg allowed, and has a -.67 TO margin shouldn’t be favored by 17 pts . . . even against miserable Memphis.
Oregon @ California (over 58). Ducks have gone over 58’ in 15 straight regular ssn gms; no reason not to make it a sweet 16.
Middle Tennessee State (-10’) v. North Texas. Blue Raiders have owned the Mean Green L4Y (4-0 w/ avg s-u W by 28 pts. MTSU also 6-1 L7 hm fave. Dasher should have little trouble v. NTX secondary.
LSU (-33) v. UL-Monroe. No reason to suspect LSU will care enough about this to play its bets (and it’s likely the scrubs will play at least the entire 4Q, but LSU’s edges on D so vast, that I have to take the chance at a SHO and a narrow cover. Tigers won s-u by 42 last mtg and have blasted the SBC foes by over 40 ppg historically.
Arkansas State (-12’) v. Western Kentucky. ASU vastly superior v. 3 of 4 common foes, has a big hm field edge (17-4 s-u L6Y v. SBC opps, and has had an extra wk to prep for the battle.
This work, unless otherwise expressly stated, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 United States License.
