Flickr image by Davey83
Week 3
(LW 4-2; YTD 6-4-1)
All stats ATS unless denoted w/ “s-u”
Kentucky (-24’) v. Akron. Zips blown out by SYR and lost at hm to DI-AA Gardner-Webb (?!). Zips also have new head coach making his first rd trip (new HC 6-10 TY in 1st rd gm) to what will be an electric atmosphere in Lexington for 2-0 s-u Wildcats. KY +173.50 ttl ypg edge TY v. AKR -133.5. KY 10-4 L4Y v. non-conf and 5-1 L4Y as > 14-pt fave. Wildcats have yet to commit a TO TY, so don’t expect fluke plays to keep AKR hanging around. KY should zip this one up early; chances of an upset: zip.
Iowa (+1) @ Arizona. Cute W’s v. dreadful TOL and Citadel, but now AZ has to face someone who will fight back and is a co-fave to win the Big Televenelve (wonder what they’ll call in ’11). IA 4-0 rd dog LY and has done well as < 3-pt dog L4Y (4-2 L5Y w/ both L’s by hook). AZ 4-8 L4Y v. non-conf and 0-3-1 L5Y in gm prior to PAC-10 opener. Hawks have better rush O, rush D and 3rd down D, as well as a pos. TO ratio . . . surprising to me that they are not a fave.
Northern Illinois (+7) @ Illinois. NIU in familiar spot as rd dog v. BCS tm and has fared well (9-3) L6Y. Illini 3-11 L5Y v. non-conf and 4-9 L13 as hm fave. ILL already -2 TO/gm, while NIU is +.5. NIU avg 6.1 ypc so should be able to control the ball and clock. NIU has better O avg than IL TY and should be able to take this gm to wire and eke out the s-u upset W.
Marshall @ Bowling Green (over 50’). BGSU hm gms L3Y through the roof ttls (avg 60 ppg L3Y w/ only 11 of 16 > 56) and both ttls TY 53+. Falcons D porous TY, having yielded 30+ to Troy and Tulsa. MARSH D allowed 45 to OSU and collapsed LW in 4Q, allowing 18 pts to lose heartbreaker v. rival WVU. Both tms have been outgained by 190+ ypg, so expect the O to be rolling and the D to be reeling. This one should bust the ttl in the 3Q.
Utah State (+4) v. Fresno State. FS struggled to beat a Cincy squad that looked pathetic last night. FS converted just 23% 3rd D on O and has huge issues historically: 0-4 L4 v. USU. USU 7-0-1 L4Y off s-u W, 16-8 L3Y v. conf and 4-2 L2Y as hm dog. USU played pretty well at OK (outgained Sooners) in losing by just a TD despite 4 TOs and a missed FG.
USC @ Minnesota (over 54). MN has zero ret starters from LY D and will face its stiffest test v. Barkley & Co. and are coming off permitting 41 to South Dakota. USC allowed amazing yd ttls TY and 36 pts to HI. Hm scores for Minny avg 57 ppg L9G.
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